Hello everyone! Welcome to my first post on Steemit! My name is JC and I, mostly, plan to use this account to share my own research on cryptocurrencies.

My first contribution has been inspired by the recent recovery that we have seen in the price of Bitcoin. This recovery made me wonder how likely it is to see the price of Bitcoin increase day after day. So, by analyzing daily data from coinmarketcap.com in the period April 2013-February 2018, I obtained the results that I summarize in the following chart:

https://steemitimages.com/DQmSjBmJCVEP6NJ4kyTCiciHWsvEghuW8Jds9ipbDJRKCaF/image.png

This chart says that, out of all of the episodes in which the price of Bitcoin has increased, on average the price increase has been sustained for 2.2 days before have seen a drop in price. Also, continued price increases that last at least four days have occurred fewer than 10% of the times. What about continued decreases in its price? Good question! The following chart shows the other side of the coin; that is the frequency with which continued decreases in the price of Bitcoin have occurred in the past.

https://steemitimages.com/DQmZJvyeG4q4raCLFbdyrTAnkvyAxvFESDoZNgi1NZtE8Xs/image.png

As can be seen, continued downtrends in the price of Bitcoin tend to have a shorter life than rallies. Good news, right?

Now, based on all of this, what do I recommend that traders do? Straight answer: Nothing. This is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. I am just sharing something I thought was interesting.

So, I was just about to finish the post, but given that this is my first one, I guess I’d also share some background about me.

My real name is Juan Carlos , but just call me JC. I currently live in Madrid, Spain and English is not my native language, so please excuse any errors. I am a PhD in Economics and I joined the cryptocurrencies world in September 2017, so I am a total newbie. In addition to trading cryptocurrencies, I enjoy fitness lifestyles, so I may (or may not) make a future post about fitness…

Please let me know if you have think the type of analysis in this post is useful, and what other things you would like me to analyze or post. Thank you all very much!